Les théories des mouvements sociaux et la dialectique des niveaux : un cadre d’analyse pour l’étude des évolutions d’Al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Les théories des mouvements sociaux sont de plus en plus utilisées pour étudier les groupesterroristes. Elles comportent différents niveaux d’analyse: les niveaux macro-analytique,méso-analytique et micro-analytique. Le présent article tente d’adapter ce corpusthéorique à l’étude du groupe jihadiste Al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique (AQMI). En effet,au cours des dernières années, AQMI ne s’est pas développé au Maghreb alors que sesactivités ont augmenté exponentiellement dans la région sahélienne, au point d’ydévelopper un sanctuaire pour le groupe au nord du Mali. Le développement d’AQMI auSahel est-il alors le résultat de choix stratégiques ou celui de dynamiques internes ? Pourexpliquer le développement d’AQMI dans la région sahélo-saharienne, l’auteur proposeune grille de lecture basée sur les niveaux macro et méso-analytiques et sur leur mise endialectique. Le niveau macro-analytique met en lumière la structure des opportunitéspolitiques induisant les choix stratégiques d’AQMI et le niveau méso-analytique lesdynamiques internes du groupe. La littérature existante sur AQMI étant principalementconstituée de monographies et de notes de recherches, l’ambition de cet article est alorsde concilier théorie et recherche empirique. Ainsi le cadre d’analyse proposé est inspirédes approches de l’action collective et de la mobilisation des ressources et cherche àaméliorer la compréhension des évolutions du groupe. L’étude menée est une analysequalitative centrée sur les États algérien et malien.The theories of social movements are increasingly used to study terrorist groups and theyare characterized by three different levels of analysis: macro, meso, and micro. This article attempts to adapt this theoretical framework to the study of the jihadist group al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Indeed, in recent years, AQIM failed to develop in North Africa while its activities have increased exponentially in the Sahel region, to the point ofdeveloping a sanctuary for the group in northern Mali. Is the development of AQIM in the Sahel the result of strategic choices or internal dynamics? To explain the development of AQIM in the Sahel-Saharan region, the author proposes a reading grid based on the macroand meso levels of analysis and their dialectical implementation. The macro-level analysis highlights the political opportunities structure inducing AQIM strategic choices and the meso-level analysis focuses on internal dynamics of the group. Seeing as existing literatureon AQIM is mainly constituted of monographs and research notes, the intent of this paperis then to reconcile theory and empirical research. Thus, the proposed framework is inspired from collective action and resource mobilization approaches and seeks to improve the understanding of the evolution of the group. The study is a qualitative analysis focusingon the Algerian and Malian States.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.016 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".