RANGE-RESTRICTED, SPECIALIST BORNEAN BUTTERFLIES ARE LESS LIKELY TO RECOVER FROM ENSO-INDUCED DISTURBANCE
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The forest fires induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997-1998 resulted in the temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species at a forest site in Borneo. Species with more restricted ranges were less likely to recover over the following four years. Matched-pair analyses revealed that species with lower initial abundances, restricted geographic ranges, and more specialized larvae were less likely to return. Specialization differed predictably between the (more generalist) wide-range and (more specialized) restricted-range species in our data set, and both geographic range and level of specialization were important in multivariate models. These are the first observations directly linking extent of occurrence, ecological specialization, and observed recovery following local extirpation. If recovery time exceeds the frequency of disturbance, local extirpation can lead to local extinction. Given that ENSO-induced disturbances are increasing in frequency, in severity, and in geographic scale, these results suggest that specialist species with restricted geographic ranges could be at particularly high risk of global extinction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".