Exploring multi‐country dynamic relations between trade and conflict
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most previous studies use a dyad as the unit of analysis and ignore the simultaneity of trade and conflict. The goal of this paper is to find out whether multi-country trade and conflict relations are statistically significant and the nature of those relations. We employ a multi-country, simultaneous framework, using the United States-Soviet Union-(West) Germany triangle as an example. The empirical analysis, from the first quarter of 1963 to the last quarter of 1991, demonstrates that trade and conflict are significantly interrelated, with positive reciprocity and inertia. Moreover, we find that dyadic flows strongly affect other dyads. The nature of these inter-dyadic effects depends on particular dyads, but both inter- and intra-dyad effects are statistically significant.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it