Quantitative reconstruction of past salinity variations in African lakes: assessment of chironomid-based inference models (Insecta: Diptera) in space and time
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Faunal records of 20 common midge species (Diptera: Chironomidae) in 32 African surface waters with salinities ranging from 20 to 41 000 µS·cm 1 were used to develop inference models for quantitative reconstruction of past salinity variations from larval chironomid fossils preserved in lake sediments. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration models using presenceabsence data (P/A) and presenceabsence data with tolerance down-weighting (P/A tol ) produced bootstrapped coefficients of determination (r 2 ) of 0.78 and 0.81, respectively, and root mean squared errors (RMSE) of prediction of 0.42 and 0.39 log conductivity units. Historical conductivity data from African lakes are scarce. Therefore, model performance was tested in time by comparing chironomid-inferred conductivity estimates with the corresponding diatom-inferred estimates in sediment records of two fluctuating lakes in the Rift Valley of Kenya. A hybrid procedure in which presenceabsence calibration models were applied to abundance-weighted fossil data yielded significantly higher correlation between chironomid- and diatom-inferred time series (Lake Oloidien AD 18801991, r 2 = 0.760.78; Crescent Island Crater AD 9001993, r 2 = 0.560.61) than by applying the same models to presenceabsence fossil data (r 2 = 0.470.56 and 0.260.42, respectively). Overall, model performance confirms that Chironomidae are valuable bioindicators for natural and man-made changes in the water balance of African lakes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it