Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses by Common Teal (Anas crecca) in Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since the recent spread of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 subtypes, avian influenza virus (AIV) dispersal has become an increasing focus of research. As for any other bird-borne pathogen, dispersal of these viruses is related to local and migratory movements of their hosts. In this study, we investigated potential AIV spread by Common Teal (Anas crecca) from the Camargue area, in the South of France, across Europe. Based on bird-ring recoveries, local duck population sizes and prevalence of infection with these viruses, we built an individual-based spatially explicit model describing bird movements, both locally (between wintering areas) and at the flyway scale. We investigated the effects of viral excretion duration and inactivation rate in water by simulating AIV spread with varying values for these two parameters. The results indicate that an efficient AIV dispersal in space is possible only for excretion durations longer than 7 days. Virus inactivation rate in the environment appears as a key parameter in the model because it allows local persistence of AIV over several months, the interval between two migratory periods. Virus persistence in water thus represents an important component of contamination risk as ducks migrate along their flyway. Based on the present modelling exercise, we also argue that HP H5N1 AIV is unlikely to be efficiently spread by Common Teal dispersal only.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".