Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Precise predictions and solutions for tomorrow's needs are the key elements to build a growing, sustainable Refining business. This requires a mixture of vision, strategic risk taking business model and investment in new technology. Refining trends forecast for the next 15 years are useful for predicting its possible landscape by 2030, where in a larger context the main challenge for the industry would be to meet twice the energy levels from today with half the CO2 emissions. Increasing and diversification of world's energy supplies to support the population of more than 8 billion then would be a mammoth task, given that the triangle of energy, food and water will be crucial. Three fundamental factors that will influence and shape this setting are: 1)Global oil products demand growth at 1.1% - 1.4% annually up to 2030 to almost 115 million barrels per day (BPD), with marginal influence of crude oil prices;2)New legislation targeting reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) / emissions will be strictly enforced3)Cleaner-burning and improved quality fuels will be essential, maximum in the transport sector which accounts 2/3rd of total demand and growth Well-to-wheels GHG emissions would drive unconventional fuels programmes; and countries with insufficient oil resources would attempt to secure supply and reduce dependence by including Gas-derived fuels, besides supplementing with CTL, GTL and BTL into supply chain. In several cases, effect of above three key factors would be multiple and cross-linked. While energy and climate change legislation would impact future growth of middle distillates – the largest group both in terms of refined products (> 30%) and consumption growth (1.6%-1.8%), advances in Refining technology would be influential from supply side, whereas new engine technology and optimized transportation logistics would provide efficiency gains from demand side. During the next 15 years in the field of clean fuels, tremendous improvements in technologies would include hydrotreating and dearomatization, hydrocracking, fluid catalytic and resid cracking, reforming, and alkylation. In the near term, besides new Refining capacity additions, increased NGL supply associated with Middle East gas production and newly commissioned GTL plants will add to the product supplies. Expected robust demand growth in Asia Pacific and Middle East may be outpaced by the supplies, with a structural change after large Middle East firmed up strategic Refinery projects and heavy-oil upgrading projects in Canada, come onstream during 2015-2018. Both gasification and natural gas steam reforming will also grow rapidly to furnish the booming demand for additional H2 to meet the fuel-quality specifications for the future. The process design and operational control would be squeezed as a result and it is invariably the last fraction which would be the most difficult to remove! Refineries will have to bear the rising cost of manpower, software and maintenance, furthermore, tighter regulatory and HSE scrutiny are expected to exert additional pressures on the refiners. Refining and integrated Petrochemicals business forms the backbone of global economic system and meeting the increasing demand with inevitable steady and sustainable profitability remains a major responsibility. Therefore, innovation, operational excellence and implementation of robust strategies are essential for its sustenance and growth. The paper discusses the futuristic and economic unlocking of value by application of technological advancements and best practices in maximization of middle distillate by upgrading bottom of the barrel besides the impact of stringent product specifications on transportation fuels and fuel oil market, competition from natural gas and renewables and the regional infrastructure additions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".