A sharper threshold for bootstrap percolation in two dimensions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two-dimensional bootstrap percolation is a cellular automaton in which sites become ‘infected’ by contact with two or more already infected nearest neighbours. We consider these dynamics, which can be interpreted as a monotone version of the Ising model, on an n × n square, with sites initially infected independently with probability p. The critical probability p c is the smallest p for which the probability that the entire square is eventually infected exceeds 1/2. Holroyd determined the sharp first-order approximation: p c ~ π 2/(18 log n) as n → ∞. Here we sharpen this result, proving that the second term in the expansion is −(log n)−3/2+o(1), and moreover determining it up to a poly(log log n)-factor. The exponent −3/2 corrects numerical predictions from the physics literature.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it