A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part I: Forcing Fields and Initial Conditions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Techniques for, and the results of, downscaling forcing and initial fields for an ocean-only regional climate model of the British Columbia continental shelf are presented. Fields from one regional-global model combination within the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program archive are shown to be representative of a larger ensemble of eight. Because model winds over the baseline period of 1970 to 1999 represent upwelling favourable conditions poorly, a strategy of computing future-minus-contemporary anomalies and adding them to the analogous values used in a recent hindcast simulation for the same region is justified and adopted. Average surface air temperatures over the future period of 2040 to 2069 are projected to be warmer for all months, with those in January generally having the highest increases and those in June the lowest. Because average precipitation is generally projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, total freshwater discharges follow a similar pattern, increasing by about 10% in all months except June to August when they are projected to decrease by up to 10%. Though projected changes to the seasonally averaged heat flux are shown here, the consequence of applying all these forcing and initial fields to a circulation model of the British Columbia continental shelf is described in a subsequent companion manuscript.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".