International Stock Market Comovements: What Happened during the Financial Crisis?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate the stock market comovements in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and the USA, both at the market and sectoral level in 2000-2010. Using multivariate GARCH models, our results suggest that the correlation among equity returns during the financial crisis (2008-2010) somewhat increased, suggesting that the crisis represented a common shock to all countries. The U.S. stock market is found to be the most correlated with the stock markets in Brazil, Canada and UK. The correlation of U.S. and Chinese stock market is essentially zero before the crisis; it becomes slightly positive during the crisis. The sectoral indices are less correlated than the market indices over the whole period, but, again, the correlations increase during the crisis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it