Fitting Smooth-in-Time Prognostic Risk Functions via Logistic Regression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When considering treatment options, a physician ideally has access to prognoses for various spans of prospective time, meaning known risks specific for these and also for both treatment and the profile of the patient. Accordingly, investigators ideally would report estimates of such risks from clinical trials and their non-experimental counterparts. To the extent that such risk estimates have been reported at all, they have mainly been based on the semi-parametric regression model of Cox. We focus on a family of fully-parametric hazard models of an attractive, versatile form that readily allows for non-proportionality, yet models that have not been easy to fit with standard statistical software. We elaborate an approach, recently proposed, to fitting such hazard functions via logistic regression. From the fitted hazard function, cumulative incidence and, thus, risk functions of time, treatment and profile can be derived. This approach accommodates any log-linear hazard function of prognostic time, treatment, and the prognostic indicators defining the patient's prognostic profile.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".