Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation and the Long-term Risk of Ischemic Stroke
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Clinically apparent atrial fibrillation increases the risk of ischemic stroke. In contrast, perioperative atrial fibrillation may be viewed as a transient response to physiological stress, and the long-term risk of stroke after perioperative atrial fibrillation is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between perioperative atrial fibrillation and the long-term risk of stroke. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data on patients hospitalized for surgery (as defined by surgical diagnosis related group codes), and discharged alive and free of documented cerebrovascular disease or preexisting atrial fibrillation from nonfederal California acute care hospitals between 2007 and 2011. Patients undergoing cardiac vs other types of surgery were analyzed separately. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Previously validated diagnosis codes were used to identify ischemic strokes after discharge from the index hospitalization for surgery. The primary predictor variable was atrial fibrillation newly diagnosed during the index hospitalization, as defined by previously validated present-on-admission codes. Patients were censored at postdischarge emergency department encounters or hospitalizations with a recorded diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Of 1,729,360 eligible patients, 24,711 (1.43%; 95% CI, 1.41%-1.45%) had new-onset perioperative atrial fibrillation during the index hospitalization and 13,952 (0.81%; 95% CI, 0.79%-0.82%) experienced a stroke after discharge. At 1 year after hospitalization for cardiac surgery, cumulative rates of stroke were 0.99% (95% CI, 0.81%-1.20%) in those with perioperative atrial fibrillation and 0.83% (95% CI, 0.76%-0.91%) in those without atrial fibrillation. At 1 year after noncardiac surgery, cumulative rates of stroke were 1.47% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.75%) in those with perioperative atrial fibrillation and 0.36% (95% CI, 0.35%-0.37%) in those without atrial fibrillation. In a Cox proportional hazards analysis accounting for potential confounders, perioperative atrial fibrillation was associated with subsequent stroke both after cardiac surgery (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6) and noncardiac surgery (hazard ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.7-2.3). The association was significantly stronger for perioperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac vs cardiac surgery (P < .001 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients hospitalized for surgery, perioperative atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased long-term risk of ischemic stroke, especially following noncardiac surgery.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it