The Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Inflation: Evidence from Malaysia
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of oil price shock on inflation in Malaysia, using monthly data from 2005 to 2011. VAR-VECM and Granger Causality model were employed to analyze the data. The cointegration between all variables are existence also at 5% significant level in the long run. But in the short run, only oil crude price affected the inflation. For granger causality test, we found that the inflation does not granger cause to the exchange rate but it does granger cause to the oil price. The oil price does granger cause to the inflation but it does not granger cause to the exchange rate. The exchange rate does not granger cause to both of the variables (Inflation and Oil Price). So, the oil crude price can give an effect on inflation. If the rate of oil crude price changes, the inflation also changes. This finding will contribute to Malaysian government in making policy to control the petrol price to avoid from the inflation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it