Changes to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Sea Ice and Freshwater Fluxes in the Twenty-First Century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B Climate Scenario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A coupled ocean and sea-ice pan-Arctic model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B climate scenario is used to study the evolution of ice and ocean surface conditions within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) during the twenty-first century. A summer ice-free CAA is likely by the end of our simulation. Sea ice undergoes significant changes from the mid-2020s to the mid-2060s in both concentration and thickness. The simulation shows a shrinking of 65% and a thinning of 75% in summer over the 40 years, resulting in a partially open Northwest Passage by the 2050s. However, ice in central Parry Channel might increase due to a decrease in export from April to June, linked to a reduced cross-channel sea surface height (SSH) gradient, before melting thermodynamically. On a larger scale, the central CAA throughflow will experience a significant decrease in both volume and freshwater transport after 2020, which is related to the change in the SSH difference between the two ends of Parry Channel, particularly the lifting of SSH in Baffin Bay. With a lower albedo, a warmer ocean is simulated, particularly in summer. The sea surface salinity within the CAA demonstrates a strong decadal oscillation without a clear trend over the entire simulation. A north–south pattern, separated by Parry Channel, is also found in the changes of ocean temperature and salinity fields due to different ice conditions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".