A hybrid swarm-machine intelligence approach for day ahead price forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of the future electricity prices in deregulated markets has become the most important management goal since it forms the basis of maximising profits for the market participants. Electricity price forecasting, however is a complex task due to non-linearity, non-stationarity and volatility of the price signal. SVM is a machine intelligence technique that has good performance in terms of prediction. An optimum selection amongst a large number of various input combinations and parameters is a real challenge for any modeller in using SVMs. This study applies SVM to predict the hourly electricity prices of Ontario market. Optimal parameters of SVM are determined using swarm intelligence techniques. Some strategies are also developed specifically for day ahead market price forecasting considering data availability, the dynamics of price movement and forecasting horizon. A detailed analysis of a hybrid technique clubbing together the machine and swarm intelligence technique has been performed with different scenarios and strategies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it