Reduced ice thickness in Arctic Transpolar Drift favors rapid ice retreat
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Helicopter‐borne electromagnetic sea ice thickness measurements were performed over the Transpolar Drift in late summers of 2001, 2004, and 2007, continuing ground‐based measurements since 1991. These show an ongoing reduction of modal and mean ice thicknesses in the region of the North Pole of up to 53 and 44%, respectively, since 2001. A buoy derived ice age model showed that the thinning was mainly due to a regime shift from predominantly multi‐ and second‐year ice in earlier years to first‐year ice in 2007, which had modal and mean summer thicknesses of 0.9 and 1.27 m. Measurements of second‐year ice which still persisted at the North Pole in April 2007 indicate a reduction of late‐summer second‐year modal and mean ice thicknesses since 2001 of 20 and 25% to 1.65 and 1.81 m, respectively. The regime shift to younger and thinner ice could soon result in an ice free North Pole during summer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".