Increasing the horizontal resolution of ensemble forecasts at CMC
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Ensemble forecasts are run operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August 1999. The method of producing the perturbed analyses consists of running independent assimilation cycles that use perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models, mainly different in their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is then used to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble output has been used to generate several products. In view of increasing computing facilities, the ensemble prediction system horizontal resolution was increased to TL149 in June 2001. Heights at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure maps are regularly used. Charts of precipitation with the probability of precipitation being above various thresholds are also produced at each run. The probabilistic forecast of the 24-h accumulated precipitation has shown skill as demonstrated by the relative operating characteristic (ROC). Verifications of the ensemble forecasts will be presented.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it