Precipitation forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models and radar nowcasts
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Short term precipitation forecasts based on Lagrangian advection of radar echoes are robust and have more skill than numerical weather prediction models over time scales of several hours. This is because the models do not generally capture well the initial precipitation distribution. We will refer to the advection‐based methods as radar nowcasts. Over longer time scales, we expect the models to perform better than nowcast methods as they resolve dynamically the large scale flow. We verify this conceptual picture of the relative accuracy of radar nowcasts and model forecasts using conventional skill scores. We identify the cross‐over point in time where model forecasts start to have more skill than nowcast methods. This occurs at about 6 hours after the forecast is initiated.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it