Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in H1N1 pandemic planning*
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The H1N1 pandemic has highlighted the importance of reliable and valid triage instruments. A Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of >11 has been proposed to exclude patients from critical care resources quoting an associated mortality of >90%. We sought to assess the mortality associated with this Sequential Organ Failure Assessment threshold and the resource implications of such a triage protocol. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: Three multisystem intensive care units. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients admitted from January 2003 to December 2008. Subsequently, a comparison H1N1 cohort was assembled consisting of all patients admitted in 2009 with confirmed H1N1. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment was collected daily by use of an electronic bedside clinical information system (n = 10,204 patients, 69,913 patient days). Mean admission Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation was 19.1. 13.4% of the cohort (9% of total patient days) had an initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment of >11. Mortality in patients with an initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of >11 was 59% (95% confidence interval: 56%, 62%). The mortality associated with an initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment >11 across diagnostic categories varied from 29% for poisoning to 67% for neurologic patients. Hospital mortality exceeded 90% only when initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment was >20 (0.2% of patients). H1N1 patients were younger, had a longer intensive care unit length of stay, and more commonly had a respiratory admission diagnosis than the nonH1N1 cohort. Hospital mortality in H1N1 patients with an initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of >11 was 31% (95% confidence interval: 5%, 56%). CONCLUSIONS: A Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of >11 was not associated with a hospital mortality of >90% at any time during intensive care unit stay. Only a small proportion of patients have the extreme initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment values associated with a hospital mortality of >90% limiting the usefulness of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment as a triage instrument for pandemic planning. Application of a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment threshold of >11 to the recent H1N1 pandemic would have excluded patients with a markedly lower mortality than seen in a large regional cohort of intensive care unit patients.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it