Climate Change and Range Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada: The Role of Migratory Birds
Bibliographic record
Abstract
MS5-05 Abstract: Recent studies indicate that the currently limited geographic range of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, is expanding. Studies also suggest that I. scapularis, and the zoonoses it transmits, may experience significant range expansion across eastern Canada in the face of climate change. In this study, we are investigating the role of northward-migrating birds in dispersing the tick in Canada: during spring 2005 migration, almost 1% of 16,000 birds examined at bird observatories in southeastern Canada carried a tick (median infestation was one tick, equivalent to on the order of 20 million ticks a year are carried into and through Canada). In a meta-analysis of published studies, some ground-feeding passerine species were significantly more likely to carry an I. scapularis tick. Most of these species were significantly more likely to be identified as carrying ticks when captured on migration into Canada during spring 2005. Two broad taxonomic groupings of these passerines (group 1: sparrows of the genus Zonotrichia and ground-feeding warblers; group 2: sparrows of the genus Melospiza, mimids, thrushes, and wrens) were as explanatory as the individual species. To identify risk zones for I. scapularis establishment, the potential trajectories of ticks carried from known endemic regions by these birds were mapped in ArcGIS, overlaid with satellite images of tick habitat and interpolations of temperature zones suitable for I. scapularis under current and future climate projections.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: yes | Observational | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: yes | Observational | low |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".