Sea Ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: Modeling the Past (1950–2004) and the Future (2041–60)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected and indeed is already being observed. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution ice–ocean regional model is developed and used to make a projection of future changes in the CAA sea ice. Results from a historical run (1950–2004) are used to evaluate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. The model results for the future (2041–60) show little change in wintertime ice concentrations from the past, but summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness is projected to decrease by 17% in the winter and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the simulated ice retreat suggests that the region could support some commercial shipping.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".