Modeling the growth response of Cladophora in a Laurentian Great Lake to the exotic invader Dreissena and to lake warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A Cladophora growth model (CGM) is calibrated and validated here to simulate attached and sloughed Cladophora biomass in daily time‐steps in an urbanized location of Lake Ontario, using two years of collected input data and independent measurements of Cladophora biomass. The CGM is used to hindcast Cladophora growth using multiplicative factors of seasonal minimal tissue phosphorus concentrations (Q P ) and seasonal mean nearshore light attenuation (Kd PA R) of the early 1970s and 1980s relative to modern data. The possible effects of climate on growth are also forecast using additive temperature increases. Cladophor a Q P in Lake Ontario has declined in parallel with decreasing pelagic P concentrations, resulting in reduced Cladophora biomass at all depths in the euphotic zone. Kd PAR has also declined, most strongly since the mid‐1990s, following Dreissena mussel invasion, driving an increase in biomass between 3.5‐ and 10‐m depth. Combining these effects, the CGM predicts that biomass along shorelines today is lower in Lake Ontario than in the 1980s. However, any increases in Q P in this post‐dreissenid‐mussel period will result in greater Cladophora proliferation than in previous decades due to increased nearshore water clarity. Cladophora Q P , while still currently lower than in the early 1980s, may be rising due to P supply to the littoral zone by the invasive mussels. The surface water temperature of Lake Ontario indicates warming of 0.96°C decade ‐1 from 1980 to 2006. With increasing surface water temperatures, the CGM predicts an earlier spring growth but only a marginal increase in peak Cladophora biomass.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".