Evaluating the Success of a CGE Model of the U.S.- Canada and North American Free Trade Agreements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper I analyze the performance of the Michigan Model of Production and Trade in simulating the impact of trade liberalization under the North American Free Trade Agreement, reviewing the results of Brown, Deardorff, and Stern (1992). Because the NAFTA entered into force only part way through the phase-in of the U.S.-Canada FTA accord, I consider their joint impact on the pattern of relative trade flows. The methodology draws on the Fox (2000) analysis of the U.S.-Canada FTA. A substantial innovation in this paper is the reimplementation of the model using MPSGE/GAMS. Preliminary results suggest that the model performs best when simulating the impact on the already-substantial trade flows between U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico. The expansion of certain sectors that had little pre-NAFTA trade highlights the difficulty of using a CES specification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".