Breeding Season Survival of Female Lesser Scaup in the Northern Boreal Forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One hypothesis advanced to explain the decline in lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) populations during the past 20 years is that adult female survival has decreased. However, no survival probability estimates exist for the boreal forest, the region where most scaup breed. We captured and radio-marked female lesser scaup (n = 42) near Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada, just before the breeding season in 1999 and 2000. Constant weekly survival probability was estimated using a Cormack-Jolly- Seber model (0.96). We extrapolate this rate to estimate survival probability for the nesting season (0.80, SE = 0.09), the period when females are at greatest risk of predation. Recent estimates of annual mortality (42%) suggest that about 50% of annual female mortality occurs during the breeding season, a result similar to recent conclusions from studies of prairie-nesting lesser scaup. Further, our survival estimate provides information required to produce preliminary models of population dynamics for boreal lesser scaup, a step that could greatly improve our understanding of decline in this species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".