Hierarchies of cause: understanding rarity in an endemic shrub Verticordia staminosa (Myrtaceae) with a highly restricted distribution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Verticordia staminosa C.Gardner & A.C.George subsp. staminosa is an extremely rare shrub occurring as an isolated population of ~1200 plants on a granite outcrop in the semi-arid agricultural region of Western Australia, separated from its closest relative V. staminosa subsp. cylindracea by 400 km. We aimed to determine a hierarchy of causes for explaining the extremely restricted distribution of subsp. staminosa, and to determine the genetic relationships among populations within both subspecies. We measured allozyme variation in all known populations of the two subspecies. There were exceptionally high levels of genetic divergence between subsp. staminosa and subsp. cylindracea, including an apparent duplication of the gene encoding phosphoglucomutase, leading to an additional gene in subsp. cylindracea. These findings combined with UPGMA analysis indicate a very long period of historical separation, perhaps originating in the early Pleistocene. Genetic variation was partitioned mostly between rather than within populations, with very low levels of genetic variation within populations of both subspecies. For subsp. staminosa we quantified seed production for three consecutive years and demography for five consecutive years. We used transition matrix models to describe the shrub’s population dynamics and stochastic simulations to explicitly compare the effects of low rainfall and disturbance on population viability. Verticordia staminosa subsp. staminosa produces large numbers of seeds each year and has flower to fruit ratios greater than reported for related rare and common congeners. Seedling recruitment occurs in most years, with pulses in the wettest years. The mean finite population growth rate was 1.031. Elasticity analyses showed that population growth rate was more sensitive to stasis of established plants than to seedling recruitment. Population viability declined with lower rainfall and increased fire-related mortality of adult plants. Rarity in subsp. staminosa is best explained by evolutionary history and the interaction of climate change and disturbances such as fire that kill plants. Climatic fluctuations since the late Pliocene might have led to stochastic extinction episodes of populations on other granite outcrops, resulting in the currently restricted distribution. We discuss the implications of our findings for management of the species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".