The Impact of Clinical, Demographic and Risk Factors on Rates of HIV Transmission: A Population-based Phylogenetic Analysis in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The diversification of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is shaped by its transmission history. We therefore used a population based province wide HIV drug resistance database in British Columbia (BC), Canada, to evaluate the impact of clinical, demographic, and behavioral factors on rates of HIV transmission. METHODS: We reconstructed molecular phylogenies from 27,296 anonymized bulk HIV pol sequences representing 7747 individuals in BC-about half the estimated HIV prevalence in BC. Infections were grouped into clusters based on phylogenetic distances, as a proxy for variation in transmission rates. Rates of cluster expansion were reconstructed from estimated dates of HIV seroconversion. RESULTS: Our criteria grouped 4431 individuals into 744 clusters largely separated with respect to risk factors, including large established clusters predominated by injection drug users and more-recently emerging clusters comprising men who have sex with men. The mean log10 viral load of an individual's phylogenetic neighborhood (composed of 5 other individuals with shortest phylogenetic distances) increased their odds of appearing in a cluster by >2-fold per log10 viruses per milliliter. CONCLUSIONS: Hotspots of ongoing HIV transmission can be characterized in near real time by the secondary analysis of HIV resistance genotypes, providing an important potential resource for targeting public health initiatives for HIV prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".