George Box's contributions to time series analysis and forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
George Edward Pelham Box was born on October 19, 1919 in Gravesend, Kent, UK and died on March 28, 2013 in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. George Box made significant contributions to many fields of statistics including design of experiments and response surface methodology, evolutionary operation, statistical inference, robustness, Bayesian methods, time series analysis and forecasting, and quality improvement. Our paper discusses his contributions to time series analysis and forecasting. His work in this area started in collaboration with Gwilym Jenkins in the early 1960s and continued over the next several decades. His contributions include the classic and extraordinarily influential book ‘Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control’ written with Gwilym Jenkins and first published by Holden Day in 1970. Subsequent contributions to time series analysis include joint work with George Tiao, Gregory Reinsel, Daniel Pena, and many former graduate students. His work provided a unified framework for carrying out time series analysis in practice and laid the foundation for many new developments in the field. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it