Increasing deaths involving oxycodone, Victoria, Australia, 2000–09
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: In light of an emerging epidemic identified in the United States and Canada, to identify trends in fatal drug toxicity involving oxycodone and the demographic characteristics and indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage of the deceased. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based observational study in Victoria, Australia. POPULATION: Decedents whose death was reported to the Victorian Coroner between 2000 and 2009 and where oxycodone was detected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association between supply of oxycodone and deaths. Demographic characteristics of decedents. Rate ratios of the rural or metropolitan location and socioeconomic indicators of disadvantage of the deceased. RESULTS: Supply to Victoria has increased nine-fold from 7.5 mg per capita in 2000 to 67.5 mg per capita in 2009. Detection of oxycodone in deaths reported to the Victorian Coroner has increased from 4 (0.08/100,000 population) in 2000 to 97 (1.78/100,000 population) in 2009-a 21-fold increase in deaths. Of the 320 cases described, 53.8% (172) were the result of drug toxicity. Of these, 52.3% were unintentional and 19.8% intentional self-harm; the remaining 27.9% are either still under investigation by the coroner or intent is unknown. Drug toxicity deaths were overrepresented in both rural areas and areas indexed with high levels of disadvantage. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial increase in the number of deaths involving oxycodone is strongly and significantly associated with the increase in supply. Most drug toxicity deaths involving oxycodone were unintentional. This newly identified trend in fatalities in Victoria supports concerns that a pattern of increasing deaths involving oxycodone is emerging globally.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".