The Cure: Design and Evaluation of a Crowdsourcing Game for Gene Selection for Breast Cancer Survival Prediction
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Molecular signatures for predicting breast cancer prognosis could greatly improve care through personalization of treatment. Computational analyses of genome-wide expression datasets have identified such signatures, but these signatures leave much to be desired in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, and biological interpretability. Methods that take advantage of structured prior knowledge (eg, protein interaction networks) show promise in helping to define better signatures, but most knowledge remains unstructured. Crowdsourcing via scientific discovery games is an emerging methodology that has the potential to tap into human intelligence at scales and in modes unheard of before. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that knowledge linking expression patterns of specific genes to breast cancer outcomes could be captured from players of an open, Web-based game. We envisioned capturing knowledge both from the player's prior experience and from their ability to interpret text related to candidate genes presented to them in the context of the game. METHODS: We developed and evaluated an online game called The Cure that captured information from players regarding genes for use as predictors of breast cancer survival. Information gathered from game play was aggregated using a voting approach, and used to create rankings of genes. The top genes from these rankings were evaluated using annotation enrichment analysis, comparison to prior predictor gene sets, and by using them to train and test machine learning systems for predicting 10 year survival. RESULTS: Between its launch in September 2012 and September 2013, The Cure attracted more than 1000 registered players, who collectively played nearly 10,000 games. Gene sets assembled through aggregation of the collected data showed significant enrichment for genes known to be related to key concepts such as cancer, disease progression, and recurrence. In terms of the predictive accuracy of models trained using this information, these gene sets provided comparable performance to gene sets generated using other methods, including those used in commercial tests. The Cure is available on the Internet. CONCLUSIONS: The principal contribution of this work is to show that crowdsourcing games can be developed as a means to address problems involving domain knowledge. While most prior work on scientific discovery games and crowdsourcing in general takes as a premise that contributors have little or no expertise, here we demonstrated a crowdsourcing system that succeeded in capturing expert knowledge.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it