The MENA Region – An Optimal Currency Area? Evaluating its Stability by Taylor-Rule Derived Stress Tests
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The European currency union with the EURO as its common currency is the most persistent and largest monetary union to date.At the beginning, it has attracted a lot of attention to the concept of monetary unions; yet, it has recently signaled a lot of warnings around the concept that requires careful studying prior to any duplication attempt.This paper aims at identifying potential currency unions in the MENA region based on interest rates' similarity as one of the aspects that affect a monetary union's success.To assess their sustainability, the optimal interest rates (Taylor rates) of the members of each potential union is estimated and used to calculate a stress level index.The sample used in this study consists of eleven countries where Taylor rates were calculated using data from 1998 to 2008.The stress test results provide a clear result: Two monetary sub-unions, namely the Saudi Arabia -Kuwait union and the Mashreq union (Jordan, Egypt and Syria), are found to have relatively low stress levels and high benefits from a common currency.In contrast, a large MENA union would suffer from very high stress levels and only modest advantages of a common currency.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".