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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Theo Vos, Ryan M Barber, Brad Bell, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Stan Biryukov, Ian Bolliger, Fiona Charlson, Adrian Davis, Louisa Degenhardt, Daniel Dicker, Leilei Duan, Holly E Erskine, Valery L. Feigin, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Thomas Fleming, Nicholas Graetz, Caterina Guinovart, Juanita A. Haagsma, Gillian M Hansen, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Kyle R Heuton, Hideki Higashi, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, E Laurie, Xiofeng Liang, Katherine T Lofgren, Rafael Lozano, Michael F MacIntyre, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mohsen Naghavi, Grant Nguyen, Shaun Odell, Katrina Ortblad, D. Allen Roberts, Gregory A. Roth, Logan Sandar, Peter Serina, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Bernadette Thomas, Harvey Whiteford, Timothy M Wolock, Pengpeng Ye, Maigeng Zhou, Marco Antonio Navarrete Ávila, Gunn Marit Aasvang, Cristiana Abbafati, Ayşe Abbasoğlu Özgören, Foad Abd-Allah, Muna I. Abdel Aziz, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Jerry Abraham, Biju Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tania C. Aburto, Tom Achoki, Ilana N. Ackerman, Ademola Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José Carmelo Adsuar, Johan Ärnlöv, Emilie Agardh, Mazin J Al Khabouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed I Albittar, Miguel Alegretti, Alicia V Aleman, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso‐Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Peter J. Allen, Mohammad AbdulAziz AlMazroa, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Álvarez, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Omid Ameli, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, Benjamin O. Anderson, H Ross Anderson, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Henry Apfel, Valentain S Arsic Arsenijevic, Al Artaman, Rana J Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S Atkins, Charles Atkinson, Alaa Badawi, Maria C Bahit, Talal Bakfalouni, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Shivanthi Balalla, Amitava Banerjee, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Sı́món Barquera, Lars Barregård, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Arindam Basu, Amanda Baxter, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Corina Benjet, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Habib Benzian, Eduardo Bernabé, Tariku J. Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Kelly Bienhoff, Boris Bikbov, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Jed D Blore, Fiona Blyth, Megan A Bohensky, Berrak Bora Başara, Guilherme Borges, Natan M. Bornstein, Dipan Bose, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert Bourne, Lindsay N. Boyers, Michael Brainin, Michael Bräuer, Carol Brayne, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Adam Briggs, Peter Brooks, Jonathan C. Brown, Traolach Brugha, Rachelle Buchbinder, Geoffrey Buckle, Gene Bukhman, Andrew GM Bulloch, Michael Burch, Richard Burnett, Rosario Cárdenas, Norberto L. Cabral, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Julio César Campuzano, Jonathan R. Carapetis, David O. Carpenter, Valeria Caso, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Vineet K Chadha, Jung‐Chen Chang, Honglei Chen, Wanqing Chen, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Costas A. Christophi, Sumeet S. Chugh, Massimo Círillo, Megan Coggeshall, Aaron J. Cohen, Valentina Colistro, Samantha Colquhoun, Leslie T. Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Kimberly Cooperrider, Josef Coresh, Monica Cortinovis, Michael H Criqui, John A. Crump, Lucía Cuevas‐Nasú, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Emily Dansereau, Héctor Gómez Dantés, Paul I. Dargan, Gail Davey, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Anand Dayama, Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora, Shelley F de la Vega, Diego De Leo, Borja del Pozo Cruz, Robert P Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Sarah Derrett, Don C. Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Gabrielle deVeber, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Cèsar Díaz‐Torné, Eric L. Ding, Клара Докова, E. Ray Dorsey, Tim Driscoll, Herbert C. Duber, Adnan M Durrani, Karen Edmond, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Matthias Endres, Ermakov Sp, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Saman Fahimi, Farshad Farzadfar, Derek FJ Fay, David T. Felson, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson Gomes Fernandes, Abraham D Flaxman, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, F. Gerry R. Fowkes, Richard C. Franklin, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Belinda J. Gabbe, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Francisco A García-Guerra, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Katherine B. Gibney, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Ketevan Goginashvili, Philimon Gona, Teresita González de Cosío, Richard A. Gosselin, Carolyn Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe Gouda, Richard L. Guerrant, H. C. Gugnani, David Gunnell, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Holly Hagan, Yara A. Halasa, Randah R Hamadeh, Hannah Hamavid, Mouhanad Hammami, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Josep María Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Simon I Hay, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Pouria Heydarpour, Martha Hı́jar, Hans W. Hoek, Howard J. Hoffman, John Hornberger, Hung Chak Ho, Mazeda Hossain, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Mohamed Hsaïri, Howard Hu, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Cheng Huang, Laëtitia Huiart, Abdullatif Husseini, Marissa Iannarone, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Simerjot K Jassal, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, Jost B. Jonas, J. Joseph, Knud Juel, Haidong Kan, André Karch, Chanté Karimkhani, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Ronit Katz, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Dhruv S Kazi, Andrew H. Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Yousef Khader, Shams Eldin AH Khalifa, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Irma Khonelidze, Christian Kieling, Daniel Kim, Sungroul Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M Kinge, Brett Kissela, Miia Kivipelto, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Alexander Krämer, Michael Kravchenko, Rita Krishnamurthi, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Ernst J. Kuipers, Veena S. Kulkarni, Kaushalendra Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Gene F. Kwan, Taavi Lai, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Y. Lam, Qing Lan, Van Charles Lansingh, Heidi J. Larson, Anders Larsson, Alicia EB Lawrynowicz, Janet L Leasher, Jong-Tae Lee, James Leigh, Ricky Leung, Miriam Levi, Bin Li, Li Y, Yongmei Li, Juan Liang, Stephen S Lim, Hsien-Ho Lin, Margaret L. Lind, M. Patrice Lindsay, Steven E. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Belinda Lloyd, Summer Lockett Ohno, Giancarlo Logroscino, Alan D López, Nancy López‐Olmedo, Joannie Lortet‐Tieulent, Paulo A. Lotufo, Nicola Low, Robyn Lucas, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Jixiang Ma, Stefan Ma, Mark T. Mackay, Marek Majdán, Reza Malekzadeh, Christopher Chabila Mapoma, Wagner Marcenes, Lyn March, Chris Margono, Guy B. Marks, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph Masci, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani M. Mayosi, Tasara T Mazorodze, Neil McGill, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Abby McLain, Brian J. McMahon, Peter A. Meaney, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejía‐Rodríguez, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Michele Meltzer, Ziad A. Memish, George A. Mensah, Atte Meretoja, Francis Mhimbira, Renata Micha, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Philip B. Mitchell, Charles Mock, Terrie E. Moffitt, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Thomas J. Montine, Ami R. Moore, Andrew Moran, Lídia Morawska, Rintaro Mori, Joanna Moschandreas, Wilkister Nyaora Moturi, Madeline L Moyer, Dariush Mozaffarian, Ulrich Müeller, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Michele E Murdoch, Joseph Murray, Kinnari Murthy, Paria Naghavi, Ziad Nahas, Aliya Naheed, Kovin Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Devina Nand, Vinay Nangia, K M Venkat Narayan, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Lori M. Newman, Charles R. Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Ngalesoni, Nguyễn Thị Trang Nhung, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Rosana Norman, Bo Norrving, Luke Nyakarahuka, In‐Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Saad B Omer, John Nelson Opio, Alberto Ortíz, Jeyaraj Pandian, Carlo Irwin A. Panelo, Eun‐Kee Park, Charles Parry, Scott B. Patten, Vinod K Paul, Boris Pavlin, Neil Pearce, Lilia S Pedraza, Carlos A. Pellegrini, David M. Pereira, Fernando Pérez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie B Peterson, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, David Phillips, Bryan K Phillips, Frédéric B. Piel, Dietrich Plaß, Dan Poenaru, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Suzanne Polinder, C Arden Pope, Svetlana Popova, Richie Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Noela M Prasad, Dima M. Qato, D. Alex Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Ivo Rakovac, Homie Razavi, Amany Refaat, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Serge Resnikoff, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Patricia M. Riccio, Lee Richardson, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Anne M. Riederer, Margot Robinson, Anna Roca, Alina Rodriguez, David Rojas‐Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Nobhojit Roy, George Mugambage Ruhago, Sabin Nsanzimana, Ralph L. Sacco, Kjetil Ksoreide, Sukanta Saha, Ramesh Sahathevan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Juan Sanabria, Lídia Sànchez-Riera, Itamar S Santos, Maheswar Satpathy, James E. Saunders, Monika Sawhney, Mete Şaylan, Peter Scarborough, Ben Schoettker, Ione JC Schneider, David C. Schwebel, James G. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Berrin Serdar, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Teresa Shamah Levy, Siyi Shangguan, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Donald S. Shepard, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Yukito Shinohara, Rahman Shiri, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Mark G. Shrime, Inga D Sigfusdottir, Donald H. Silberberg, Edgar P. Simard, Shireen Sindi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Lavanya Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Michael Soljak, Samir Soneji, Sergey Soshnikov, Peter Speyer, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Heidi Stöeckl, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou, Nadine Steckling, Murray B. Stein, Dan J. Stein, Timothy J. Steiner, Andrea Stewart, Eden Stork, Lars Jacob Stovner, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Lela Sturua, Bruno Sunguya, Mamta Swaroop, Bryan L. Sykes, Karen M. Tabb, Ken Takahashi, Feng Tan, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Marcel Tanner, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Hugh R. Taylor, Braden Te Ao, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Margreet ten Have, Eric Y. Tenkorang, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Alice Theadom, E. W. C. Thomas, Andrew Thorne‐Lyman, Amanda G. Thrift, Marcello Tonelli, Fotis Topouzis, Jeffrey A Towbin, Hideaki Toyoshima, Jefferson Traebert, Bach Xuan Tran, Leonardo Trasande, Matias Trillini, Thomas Truelsen, Ulises Trujillo, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, E. Murat Tuzcu, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Selen Begüm Uzun, Wim H. van Brakel, Steven van de Vijver, Rita Van Dingenen, Coen H. van Gool, Yuri Y Varakin, Tommi Vasankari, Monica S. Vavilala, Lennert Veerman, Gustavo Velásquez-Meléndez, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Salvador Villalpando, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Stephen G. Waller, Mitchell T. Wallin, Xia Wan, JianLi Wang, Yanping Wang, Tati Suryati Warouw, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, K. Ryan Wessells, Ronny Westerman, James D. Wilkinson, Hywel C Williams, Thomas N. Williams, Solomon Woldeyohannes, Charles Wolfe, John Q. Wong, Haidong Wong, Anthony D. Woolf, Jonathan L. Wright, Brittany Wurtz, Gelin Xu, Gonghuan Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Kim Yun Kim, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Yong Zhang, Zheng Zhao, Yong Zhao, Jun Zhu, David Zonies, Joseph R. Zunt, Joshua A. Salomon, Christopher J L Murray
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet · 2015
Typereview
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicChronic Disease Management Strategies
Canadian institutionsHealth CanadaUniversity of TorontoWestern UniversityMcMaster UniversityPublic Health Agency of CanadaUniversity of OttawaHeart and Stroke FoundationUniversity of AlbertaUniversité de MontréalUniversity of CalgaryUniversity of British ColumbiaMemorial University of Newfoundland
FundersBiocodex FranceOrion CorporationUCB PharmaNational Center for Advancing Translational SciencesFogarty International CenterNational Institute on Drug AbuseNorwegian Institute of Public HealthSahlgrenska AkademinInstituto de Salud Carlos IIINational Health and Medical Research CouncilEconomic and Social Research CouncilBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research CouncilSanofi PasteurQatar National Research FundEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilWeill Cornell Medical CollegeGöteborgs UniversitetDirectorate for Biological SciencesNational Institutes of HealthUniversidad de ExtremaduraPontificia Universidad JaverianaMedical Research CouncilSri Ramachandra UniversityServierUppsala UniversitetUniversidad de la República UruguayDebre Markos UniversityUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenEli Lilly and CompanySeconda Università degli Studi di NapoliBill and Melinda Gates FoundationSapienza Università di RomaSanofiEisaiLundbeckfondenMinistero della SaluteCairo UniversityHøgskolen i Oslo og AkershusFonds National de la Recherche LuxembourgJohnson and JohnsonUniversity of MelbourneConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoWyethPublic Health AgencyEunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentRegione ToscanaMashhad University of Medical SciencesPublic Health EnglandPublic Health Foundation of IndiaSouth African Medical Research CouncilNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaAustralian GovernmentChief Scientist OfficeAstraZenecaWellcome TrustSolvayAllerganNational Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research UnitH. Lundbeck A/SInstitute for Health Metrics and EvaluationBirzeit UniversityBahir Dar UniversityViropharmaJazz PharmaceuticalsKurdistan University Of Medical SciencesVersus ArthritisArthritis Research UKRegeneron PharmaceuticalsNovartisNational Institute for Social Care and Health ResearchMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadBritish Heart FoundationUniversity of OxfordOklahoma Center for the Advancement of Science and TechnologyUniversity of CanterburyFred Hollows FoundationUniversity of the PhilippinesUniversität BaselUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignKarolinska InstitutetYale UniversityUnited Nations Population FundHacettepe ÜniversitesiUniversity of New South WalesSumitomo FoundationRocheWellcomeAuckland University of Technology, New ZealandU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorUniversity of WashingtonRijksuniversiteit GroningenMinisterio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar SocialNational Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentALS AssociationMerckGlaxoSmithKlineCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchKing's College LondonBrien Holden Vision InstituteQueen Mary University of LondonNational Kidney FoundationAbbott LaboratoriesPublic Health Agency of CanadaABMRF/The Foundation for Alcohol ResearchNational Institute of Environmental Health SciencesMinistry of Health, Labour and WelfarePfizerMekelle UniversityCancer Research UKInternational Society of NephrologyWorld Health OrganizationFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do SulMadawalabu UniversityUniversity of Illinois SystemUniversité de LorraineUniversity of CanberraNational Science Foundation
KeywordsMedicineIncidence (geometry)Environmental healthPediatrics
Abstract
No abstract in any covered source. Its absence is recorded, not treated as a negative.
No abstract. This is not a gap in this database; OpenAlex has none either. 23.3% of the frame is in this state, and the screen finds HALF as much metaresearch here, so the absence is a measured bias rather than a missing field.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Meta-analysis · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: Review
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.060
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.069
GPT teacher head0.386
Teacher spread0.317 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designMeta-analysis
Domainnot available
GenreReview
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations6,508
Published2015
Admission routes2
Has abstractno