The Linkage Between the Options and Credit Default Swap Markets During the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study investigates the linkage between the options and credit default swap (CDS) markets around the subprime mortgage crisis period, using the unit recovery claim (URC). Through estimation of a well‐hedging strike price within a firm‐specific and time‐varying default corridor and consideration of the CDS term structure and firm‐specific recovery rate, modified URCs from the two markets are demonstrated to have a tighter linkage. The adjusted URCs show that, after the crisis, the effect of macroeconomic variable on deviations between the two markets increased and the options market's predictive power for the future movement of the CDS market was amplified. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it