Évaluation au Québec d’un modèle de prédiction de la fin de la période annuelle d’éjection des ascospores du Venturia inaequalis.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Un modèle de prédiction de la fin de la période des éjections d'ascospores du Venturia inaequalis , développé à partir de données recueillies au New Hampshire, a été évalué dans sept localités de pomoculture québécoise, entre 1981 et 1987. Pour Frelighsburg 1983 et Saint-Joseph-du-Lac 1982, à la date à laquelle le modèle a estimé le niveau de 100% d'ascospores matures, les valeurs observées n'ont pas différé significativement des estimés; dans tous les autres cas, les valeurs observées ont été significativement inférieures aux estimés avec une différence variant entre 4,2 % et 35,4 %. Le modèle a aussi prédit trop tôt la fin de la période d'éjection des ascospores dans 12 cas sur 16, alors qu'il restait entre 14% et 70% des ascospores dans les pseudothèces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".