Bias in Minimum Temperature Introduced by a Redefinition of the Climatological Day at the Canadian Synoptic Stations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract On 1 July 1961, the climatological day was redefined to end at 0600 UTC (coordinated universal time) at all synoptic (airport) stations in Canada. Prior to that, the climatological day ended at 1200 UTC for maximum temperature and 0000 UTC for minimum temperature. This study shows that the redefinition of the climatological day in 1961 has created a cold bias in the annual and seasonal means of daily minimum temperatures across the country while the means of daily maximum temperatures were not affected. Hourly temperatures taken at 121 stations for 1953–2007 are used to determine the magnitude of the bias and its spatial variation. It was found that the bias is more pronounced in the eastern regions; its annual mean varies from −0.2° in the west to −0.8°C in the east. Not all days are affected by this change in observing time, and the annual percentage of affected days ranges from 15% for locations in the west to 38% for locations in the east. An approach based on hourly values is proposed for adjusting the affected daily minimum temperatures over 1961–2007. The adjustment on any individual day varies from 0.5° to 12.5°C. The impact of the adjustment is assessed by examining the trends in the annual mean of the daily minimum temperatures for 1950–2007. Overall, with the adjustment, the trends are becoming either more positive or are reversing from negative to positive, and they have changed by as much as 1°C in numerous locations in the eastern regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".