The Impact of the Varicella Vaccination Program on Herpes Zoster Epidemiology in the United States: A Review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Speculation that a universal varicella vaccination program might lead to an increase in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence has been supported by modeling studies that assume that exposure to varicella boosts immunity and protects against reactivation of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) as HZ. Such studies predict an increase in HZ incidence until the adult population becomes predominantly composed of individuals with vaccine-induced immunity who do not harbor wild-type VZV. In the United States, a varicella vaccination program was implemented in 1995. Since then, studies monitoring HZ incidence have shown inconsistent findings: 2 studies have shown no increase in overall incidence, whereas 1 study has shown an increase. Studies from Canada and the United Kingdom have shown increasing rates of HZ incidence in the absence of a varicella vaccination program. Data suggest that heretofore unidentified risk factors for HZ also are changing over time. Further studies are needed to identify these factors, to isolate possible additional effects from a varicella vaccination program. Untangling the contribution of these different factors on HZ epidemiology will be challenging.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".