Investigation of regional seismicity before and after hydraulic fracturing in the Horn River Basin, northeast British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We systematically re-analyzed historical seismograms to verify the existence of background seismicity in the Horn River Basin of northeast British Columbia before the start of regional shale gas development. We also carefully relocated local earthquakes that occurred between December 2006 and December 2011 to delineate their spatiotemporal relationship with hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations in the region. Scattered seismic events were detected in the Horn River Basin throughout the study periods. The located seismicity within 100 km of the Fort Nelson seismic station had a clearly increasing trend, specifically in the Etsho area where most local HF operations were performed. The number of events was increased from 24 in 2002–2003 (prior to HF operations) to 131 in 2011 (peak period of HF operations). In addition, maximum magnitude of the events was shifted from M L 2.9 to M L 3.6 as the scale of HF operation expanded from 2006–2007 to 2011. Based on our relocated earthquake catalog, the overall b value is estimated at 1.21, which is higher than the average of tectonic/natural earthquakes of ∼1.0. Our observations highly support the likelihood of a physical relationship between HF operation and induced seismicity in the Horn River Basin. Unfortunately, due to the sparse station density in the region, depth resolution is poor for the vast majority of events in our study area. As new seismograph stations are established in northeast British Columbia, both epicentral mislocation and depth uncertainty for future events are expected to improve significantly.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".