Evaluating Mobility Between Unmatched Quantiles: The Effects on Generational Mobility of Changes in Family Law in the United States.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We thank participants at the CEPA seminars at University of Toronto, and at the Center for European This paper addresses the intergenerational mobility question by examining the role of family structure in the transmission of educational attainment using the one percent Integrated Public Use Microsample Series (IPUMS) of the decennial Census for the decades 1970 and 1990. We first introduce mobility indices and tests which examine the proximity of the transition matrix to that which would pertain in the perfectly mobile state. Unlike existing transition matrix based mobility indices, these indices and tests can be employed when the quantiles of the marginal states are unmatched, and when the transition matrix is between states that are defined multivariately. Using educational attainment as a proxy for permanent income for children and both educational attainment and income as proxies for parents, the tests indicate that mobility significantly increased for the population as a whole. Within the single parent group there was much less evidence for significant mobility change for children from widowed single parent families than for children from divorced and separated single parent families.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".