An Examination of the Relationship Between U.S. and Canadian Durum Wheat Prices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Durum wheat is one of the commodities for which there is intense trade competition between the United States and Canada. This article examines the relationship between Canadian and U.S. durum wheat prices using cointegration and an asymmetric error correction approach. The overall results suggest that a long run relation holds between the U.S. and Canadian durum wheat prices. The U.S. price responds to restore the equilibrium relationship with the corresponding Canadian price, while the Canadian price evolves independently. Using tests for structural change it is revealed that changes in Canadian domestic policy (the repeal of the WGTA) had an effect on this long run relation. Since the withdrawal of the WGTA, quality differences in durum wheat for both countries seem to matter in the dynamics and integration of U.S. and Canadian durum wheat prices. Le blé dur est l'une des denrées pour lesquelles les États‐Unis et le Canada se livrent une concurrence féroce. Le présent article examine la relation entre les prix du blé dur américain et canadien en utilisant la cointégration et un modèle à correction d'erreur asymétrique. Les résultats globaux semblent indiquer qu'il existe depuis longtemps une relation entre les prix du blé américain et canadien. Le prix américain réagit pour rétablir la relation d'équilibre avec le prix canadien correspondant, tandis que le prix canadien évolue de façon indépendante. Des tests effectués pour vérifier les répercussions des changements structurels ont indiqué que des changements dans la politique intérieure canadienne (notamment l'abrogation de laLoi sur le transport du grain de l'Ouest‐ LTGO) ont eu une influence sur cette relation. Depuis l'abolition de la LTGO, des différences de qualité de blé dur dans les deux pays semblent avoir de l'importance dans la dynamique et l'intégration des prix du blé dur canadien et américain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".