The 15% Rule in Scleroderma: The Frequency of Severe Organ Complications in Systemic Sclerosis. A Systematic Review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of organ complications in scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) varies by definition used. This study was done to determine the frequency of several features of SSc. METHODS: A search of Medline-Ovid/Embase, PubMed, and Scopus databases from 1980 to November 30, 2011, was conducted to identify relevant articles with at least 50 patients with SSc extracting prevalence of each organ complication. Study quality was assessed using the STROBE (Strengthening The Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology) checklist. Pooled prevalence was calculated using the random effects method. Heterogeneity was quantified using I(2). RESULTS: A total of 5916 articles were identified (913 from Medline-Ovid/Embase, 1009 from PubMed, and 3994 from Scopus); 5665 were excluded, leaving 251 articles for full-text review, with 69 included. Where available, frequencies were also included from the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group. Many severe complications in SSc occur about 15% of the time, including cardiac involvement (15%, 95% CI 6-24), diastolic dysfunction (16%, 95% CI 14-17), estimated pulmonary artery pressure > 40 mm Hg (18%, 95% CI 14-21), pulmonary arterial hypertension by right heart catheterization (15%, 95% CI 12-17), forced vital capacity (FVC) < 70% predicted (15%, 95% CI 12-17), FVC < 80% predicted (17%, 95% CI 12-21), myositis (13%, 95% CI 10-17), inflammatory arthritis (12%, 95% CI 9-16), Sjögren overlap (13%, 95% CI 10-16), and digital ulcers (DU; 15%, 95% CI 10-20); and 15% of DU have complications (amputations 12%, 95% CI 8-16, and hospitalizations 13%, 95% CI 6-21). Scleroderma renal crisis is uncommon but occurs in almost 15% (12%, 95% CI 5-19) of cases of disseminated cutaneous SSc. There is no 15% rule within skin and gastrointestinal tract for SSc. CONCLUSION: The "15%" rule for frequency of significant organ involvement in SSc is helpful.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.064 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.013 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".