Patterns and predictors of early mortality among emergency department patients in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ethiopian emergency department (ED) patients have a considerable burden of illness and injury for which all-cause mortality rates have not previously been published. This study sought to characterize the burden of and to identify predictors for early all-cause mortality among patients presenting to the Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital ED (TASH-ED) in Ethiopia. METHODS: Data was prospectively collected from the records of all patients who died within 72 h of ED presentation. Pearson's Chi square and Fisher's exact tests were used to investigate associations between two outcome variables: (a) time to death and (b) immediate cause of death in relation to specific demographic and clinical factors. Time from ED presentation to death was dichotomized as 'very early' mortality within ≤6 h and death >6-72 h and logistic regression was used to assess the adjusted impact of these demographic and clinical variables on the probability of dying within 6 h of ED presentation. RESULTS: Between October 2012 and May 2013, 9956 patients visited the ED and 220 patients died within 72 h of admission. After excluding patients dead on arrival (n = 34), the average age of death was 43.1 years and the overall mortality rate was 1.9 %. Head injury (21.5 %) and sepsis (18.8 %) were the most common causes of death. Relative to medical patients, trauma patients were more likely to be male (p < 0.01), less likely to have had prior recent ED visits (p < 0.01) and more likely to be triaged as higher acuity (p = 0.04). The sole statistically significant predictor of death within 6 h from our multivariable logistic regression model was symptom duration less than 4 h (4-48 h vs. <4 h: OR = 0.20, 95 % CI 0.07, 0.53, p < 0.01; >48 h vs. <4 h: OR = 0.27, 95 % CI 0.09, 0.81, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality burden of trauma and sepsis in the TASH-ED is substantial, and mortality patterns differ between these groups. As emergency medicine develops as a specialty in the Ethiopian health system, the potential impact of context-specific clinical care protocol development, trauma prevention advocacy and ED care re-organization initiatives to reduce mortality among these young, previously well patients warrants exploration.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it