U.S. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Epidemic: Date of Origin, Population History, and Characterization of Early Strains
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on different lineages. When sequences were grouped by years of collection, nucleotide distance comparisons demonstrated an increase in diversity over time and indicated that contemporary strains are more closely related to early epidemic strains than to each other. Using a recently developed likelihood ratio reduction procedure, the date of origin of the U.S. epidemic was estimated to be 1968 +/- 1.4 years. A coalescent approach was also used to estimate the population history of the U.S. subtype B epidemic. Our analyses provide new information that implies an exponential growth rate from the beginning of the U.S. HIV epidemic. The dating results suggest a U.S. introduction date (or date of divergence from the most recent common ancestor) that precedes the date of the earliest known AIDS cases in the late 1970s. Furthermore, the estimated epidemic growth curve shows a period of exponential growth that preceded most of the early documented cases and also indicates a leveling of prevalence rates in the recent past.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".