Risk Factors for Criminal Recidivism in Older Sexual Offenders
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sexual offenders constitute a substantial proportion of the older male prison population. Recent research findings, with potential consequences for risk management, indicate that recidivism risk might be lower in older sexual offenders. We followed up all adult male sexual offenders released from prison in Sweden during 1993-1997 (N=1,303) for criminal reconviction for an average of 8.9 years. We studied rates of repeat offending (sexual and any violent) by four age bands (<25, 25-39, 40-54, and 55+years), and examined whether risk factors for recidivism remained stable across age groups. Results showed that recidivism rates decreased significantly in older age bands. In addition, the effect of certain risk factors varied by age band. These findings on recidivism rates in older sexual offenders concur with studies from the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada and may suggest some generalizability in Western settings. Further research is needed to address underlying mechanisms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it