Beyond the Central Tendency: <i>Quantile Regression as a Tool in Quantitative Investing</i>
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Quantitative investors frequently analyze factor performance using regression based on the familiar ordinary least squares approach. This is highly effective for understanding the central tendency within a dataset, but will often be less useful for assessing the behavior of datapoints close to the upper or lower extremes within a population. But from the perspective of active investors or risk managers, the datapoints at the extremes may be precisely the ones of greatest interest. For such applications, a more appropriate methodology is quantile regression. The authors show how quantile regression represents an extension of the conventional ordinary least squares method, and present an empirical analysis of factor effectiveness applied to a universe of U.S. small-cap stocks in order to illustrate the insights offered by this technique. <bold>TOPICS:</bold> <ext-link>Portfolio construction</ext-link>, <ext-link>statistical methods</ext-link>, <ext-link>accounting and ratio analysis</ext-link>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it