Financial Development and Economic Growth in the UAE: Empirical Assessment Using ARDL Approach to Co-integration
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a small open economy of United Arab Emirates (UAE). Using time series data from 1974 to 2008, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration. The analysis is carried out using two indicators to measure the level of financial development. The first indicator is the financial depth or size of the financial intermediaries sector as measured by the monetization ratio (M2/GDP). The second indicator is the ratio of the credit provided to private sector by commercial banks as a percentage of the GDP (financial intermediation ratio). The results show a negative and statistically significant relationship between financial development, as measured by M2/GDP, and economic growth. The results also suggest a bi-directional causality between the two variables. Over all, the evidence supports neither the demand-following nor the supply-leading hypotheses for UAE.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it