Sustainability of the Bedrock Aquifer Systems in South-Central Manitoba: Implications for Large-Scale Modelling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A three-dimensional density dependent flow and transport model was developed for the Carbonate and Sandstone Aquifers in a 60,000 square-kilometre area of south-central Manitoba. Hydrogeological properties, such as transmissivity, and aquifer response data, were collected for both aquifers. Bayesian Updating was used to determine the heterogeneous transmissivity field of each aquifer. Other parameters were designated based on collected data or typical values from the literature. The resulting model was used to evaluate several water resources scenarios within the Province of Manitoba. The sustainability over 20 years with constant pumping rates was examined. Within both aquifers, hydraulic heads declined in some regions and on average a decline in head was predicted. Model simulations were also conducted to observe the effect of flooding as this is an issue of concern in southern Manitoba. A pseudo-flood was assumed to last for a period of one month. The model was run for a period of 50 years to observe the long-term effects. The solute transport results show a concentration increase in the region south of the City of Winnipeg after one-month, indicating a decline in water quality. Drought simulations were incorporated by reducing recharge rates to the aquifers. The hydraulic heads within the Carbonate Aquifer decline within the Interlake region with a maximum decline within the Sandilands region southeast of the City of Winnipeg. As might be expected, the effects of reduced recharge on the entire aquifer sequence are significant.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".