Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Recent shifts in phenology are the best documented biological response to current anthropogenic climate change, yet remain poorly understood from a functional point of view. Prevailing analyses are phenomenological and approximate, only correlating temperature records to imprecise records of phenological events. To advance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated, and validated process‐based models of leaf unfolding for 22 North American tree species. Using daily meteorological data predicted by two scenarios (A2: +3.2 °C and B2: +1 °C) from the HadCM3 GCM, we predicted and compared range‐wide shifts of leaf unfolding in the 20th and 21st centuries for each species. Model predictions suggest that climate change will affect leaf phenology in almost all species studied, with an average advancement during the 21st century of 5.0 days in the A2 scenario and 9.2 days in the B2 scenario. Our model also suggests that lack of sufficient chilling temperatures to break bud dormancy will decrease the rate of advancement in leaf unfolding date during the 21st century for many species. Some temperate species may even have years with abnormal budburst due to insufficient chilling. Species fell into two groups based on their sensitivity to climate change: (1) species that consistently had a greater advance in their leaf unfolding date with increasing latitude and (2) species in which the advance in leaf unfolding differed from the center to the northern vs. southern margins of their range. At the interspecific level, we predicted that early‐leafing species tended to show a greater advance in leaf unfolding date than late‐leafing species; and that species with larger ranges tend to show stronger phenological changes. These predicted changes in phenology have significant implications for the frost susceptibility of species, their interspecific relationships, and their distributional shifts.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it