Advanced approaches to hot-mix asphalt dynamic modulus prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The dynamic modulus (|E*|) is one of the primary hot-mix asphalt (HMA) material property inputs at all three hierarchical levels in the new Mechanistic–empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG). The existing |E*| prediction models were developed mainly from regression analysis of an |E*| database obtained from laboratory testing over many years and, in general, lack the necessary accuracy for making reliable predictions. This paper describes the development of a simplified HMA |E*| prediction model employing artificial neural network (ANN) methodology. The intelligent |E*| prediction models were developed using the latest comprehensive |E*| database that is available to researchers (from National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 547) containing 7400 data points from 346 HMA mixtures. The ANN model predictions were compared with the Hirsch |E*| prediction model, which has a logical structure and a relatively simple prediction model in terms of the number of input parameters needed with respect to the existing |E*| models. The ANN-based |E*| predictions showed significantly higher accuracy compared with the Hirsch model predictions. The sensitivity of input variables to the ANN model predictions were also examined and discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".