Spatial and Time Scale Effects in Canadian Avalanche Bulletins
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT: In the winters of 2004-05 and 2005-06, 235 local “nowcasts ” of the avalanche danger at and below treeline in the Coast, Columbia and Rocky Mountains of western Canada were compared with the danger rating from the public avalanche bulletin for the region including the nowcast site. These bulletins are issued from three to seven times per week, and the forecast regions range from 100 km2 to approximately 30,000 km2. After identifying an observation bias and filtering the data to 192 cases, the local nowcasts agreed with the regional danger rating in approximately 57 % to 64 % of the cases in the Coast, Columbia and Rocky Mountains. The agreement rate was higher for small forecast regions than for larger regions. Many of the nowcasts could be compared with danger ratings published zero, one or two days previously. This allowed the effect of different lead times to be assessed. It appears that the danger rating for the larger regions with infrequent bulletins has the potential to be improved more by reducing the size of the forecast regions than by increasing the frequency of forecasts from three times per week to five or seven times per week.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".