Spatio‐temporal modelling of disease mapping of rates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper studies generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of geographic and temporal variability of disease rates. This class of models adopts spatially correlated random effects and random temporal components. Spatio‐temporal models that use conditional autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and autoregressive smoothing over the temporal dimension are developed. The model also accommodates the interaction between space and time. However, the effect of seasonal factors has not been previously addressed and in some applications (e.g., health conditions), these effects may not be negligible. The authors incorporate the seasonal effects of month and possibly year as part of the proposed model and estimate model parameters through generalized estimating equations. The model provides smoothed maps of disease risk and eliminates the instability of estimates in low‐population areas while maintaining geographic resolution. They illustrate the approach using a monthly data set of the number of asthma presentations made by children to Emergency Departments (EDs) in the province of Alberta, Canada, during the period 2001–2004.The Canadian Journal of Statistics38: 698–715; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".