Predictive Validity of the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) With Juvenile Offenders
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Violence is a serious social problem that is often encountered in the youth justice system. Identifying those adolescents who are at the highest risk for future violence is an important step toward effective rehabilitation. The current study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), a structured professional judgment risk tool, in a sample of 121 juvenile offenders. The SAVRY was found to have strong predictive validity, a finding that was robust across gender and ethnicity. The SAVRY obtained ROC values of .75 and .66 for general and violent recidivism, respectively, for 1 year, and values of .76 and .77 for general and violent recidivism, respectively, for 3-year follow-up. For nonviolent recidivism, the ROC values were .80 for 1-year and .68 during 3 years. Use of the SAVRY in the youth justice system, and limitations of the study, are discussed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it