Modelling the invasion risk of diapausing organisms transported in ballast sediments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Biological invasions via ship ballast are a major driver of biodiversity change in aquatic systems. In the Laurentian Great Lakes basin, unique shipping operations pose a particular invasion risk. The majority (>90%) of incoming vessels are not fully loaded with ballast water but carry ballast sediments and residual water. Ballast sediments contain viable diapause organisms that could hatch and be released during routine ballast operations. To assess invasion risk and control of this pathway, we constructed and parameterized a dynamic hatching model for three representative groups of freshwater organisms that undergo diapause: rotifers, cladocerans, and copepods. Numerical model simulations show that ballast sediment is a plausible invasion pathway for all three groups. The model also illustrates that postuptake ballast treatment to remove or kill potential invaders should be applied as late as possible prior to deballasting to minimize the number of live organisms released. Simulations show that the ability of taxa to reproduce parthenogenetically inside a ballast tank greatly influences quantitative predictions of both risk and control.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".